NYT: DraftKings used AI “elasticity” scores to aim casino promos

NYT: DraftKings used AI “elasticity” scores to aim casino promos

On 19 September 2026, *The New York Times* published an investigation saying DraftKings built a 2023 machine-learning model that scored online casino customers with an internal “elasticity” measure — an estimate of how much more a player would wager and lose after promotional free bets or bonuses. Higher scorers, the paper reports, kept receiving more offers; lower (“inelastic”) scorers got fewer.

Trade desks, including Bookmakers Review the same day, carried the story. This page attributes contested claims to that reporting. DraftKings rejects the idea that it aims promotions at customers because they lose.

What the reporting says the model did

According to the Times coverage summarised across desks, the company trained the tool on historical play, then refreshed each customer’s recent activity on a weekly cycle. Inputs cited in secondary write-ups include play frequency, account balances, loss-to-wager patterns, and an estimate of how likely a player was to quit. The output was the elasticity score used to steer where promo spend went.

Former analyst Jayden Butts, named in the coverage, told the paper he tested the score on casino promotions (an early run on about 5,000 players is cited in secondary desks) and that supervisors framed the goal as redeploying promo dollars rather than cutting them. Six former employees who worked on related methods, the Times says, described continued refinement of data-driven “bet more” targeting. One anonymous ex-analyst quoted in secondary coverage called the approach “as predatory as it sounds.”

Those are allegations and former-employee accounts in journalism — not admissions by DraftKings, and not hands-on testing by Bonusjungle.

The risk model that did not ship

The same investigation says that in mid-2024, data scientist Nestor Hernandez began a separate model to help the responsible-gaming team spot customers heading for harm, using patterns such as money movement and loss-chasing behaviour. The project was incomplete when he left; a successor team, including Jake Shannin in desk accounts, later prepared a leadership presentation that was cancelled. Homegrown predictive risk-scoring attempts were dropped, ex-employees told the paper.

DraftKings’ chief responsible gaming officer Lori Kalani, interviewed for the Times piece, said leadership jointly judged the evidence for predictive tools insufficient and kept the company’s trigger-based monitoring — dozens of behavioural indicators that can escalate to messages, education, questionnaires, or account closure — as the stronger method. Secondary desks also note DraftKings has not signed the same third-party risk-scoring vendors that some rivals say they use. That comparison is reported context, not a Bonusjungle audit of any operator.

What DraftKings says

DraftKings disputes the “target losers” framing. In statements to the Times, it says promotions go to customers with sustained, engaged use of the platform — not to people chosen for their losses — and that flagged or self-excluded customers do not receive promos. It called Butts’s tests provisional and inconclusive without verifying the underlying documents, and said his views do not reflect company promo strategy. Kalani said business goals and responsible-gaming work are not in conflict, and that the company prefers tools proven to help customers over technology adopted for its own sake.

Hold both accounts: the Times’ document-and-interview narrative, and the company’s on-record denial.

Why the wire matters

Citizens Bank figures cited via the Times put DraftKings’ 2025 gross revenue from sports and casino customers near $8.7 billion, against roughly $3 billion in promotions — numbers that explain why promo allocation is a live industry fight, not a footnote. The piece sits next to recent vault coverage of harm data and AI governance without merging those stories: this is a US operator product and oversight dispute, not a licence grant and not advice to chase losses or bypass geo or self-exclusion controls.

If promotional mail feels hard to ignore, that is a personal banking and wellbeing problem — not a cue to deposit more. National helplines such as 1-800-GAMBLER exist for anyone who wants them; Bonusjungle does not coach around limits, KYC, or blocks.

Read it next to [Ontario ICES gambling-disorder ED visits](/news/ontario-ices-gambling-disorder-ed-visits) and [MGA AI gaming charter launch](/news/mga-ai-gaming-charter-launch). Keep small print and responsible play in view.

More desk notes: news, casinos, [Ontario ICES gambling-disorder ED visits](/news/ontario-ices-gambling-disorder-ed-visits), [MGA AI gaming charter launch](/news/mga-ai-gaming-charter-launch), small print, responsible play.