FDJ United cuts 2026 targets as jackpots shrink, taxes rise

FDJ United has lowered its 2026 targets after a weak third quarter. The Paris-listed group, which runs France's national lottery and, since its acquisition of Kindred, announced in 2024, online brands including Unibet and 32Red, published revenue figures to the end of September on 21 October.

Over the first nine months of 2026, gross gaming revenue (GGR, the amount staked minus players' winnings) fell 2.8% to EUR 6,264 million. Revenue fell 5.6% to EUR 2,576 million (prior-year figure: EUR 2,730 million). FDJ United says more than two percentage points of that decline came from higher gaming taxes.

The third quarter alone was weaker. GGR fell 6.1% to EUR 1,950 million and revenue fell 8.1% to EUR 794 million, compared with EUR 864 million a year earlier.

Four reasons, in FDJ United's words

The group names four causes:

• far fewer, and smaller, high jackpots than in 2025, especially in EuroMillions, a trend that intensified in the third quarter;
• unusually high winnings for sports bettors in the third quarter, particularly in shops;
• a difficult French economy that cut footfall at points of sale in the second and third quarters;
• gaming tax increases costing the group EUR 62 million.

The jackpot effect is the clearest. By the end of September there had been 12 EuroMillions jackpots above EUR 130 million, against 27 in the same period of 2025, and only one above EUR 200 million, against 12. FDJ United says stakes rise and fall sharply with jackpot size, and that the trend in France matched the average of all ten European lotteries that sell EuroMillions.

Lottery and shops

In the French lottery and retail sports betting unit, GGR fell 3.5% to EUR 4,978 million and revenue fell 4.8% to EUR 1,794 million, after EUR 28 million in extra tax. Draw games took the hit: GGR down 10.3% and revenue down 12.2% to EUR 563 million. Instant games held up, with GGR up 1.9% and revenue up 0.3% to EUR 935 million.

Retail sports betting GGR fell 3.2% and revenue fell 4.5% to EUR 297 million. FDJ United puts this down to very high winnings for bettors, particularly in the third quarter, when the share of stakes paid back to players rose by more than four percentage points to nearly 80%.

Online: steady overall, weak in the Netherlands and the UK

The online betting and gaming unit, which includes the former Kindred business, kept GGR almost flat, down 0.8% at EUR 1,013 million. Revenue fell 8.2% to EUR 619 million after EUR 34 million in extra tax. In the third quarter, online revenue fell 10.2% to EUR 188 million.

The picture differs sharply by market. Excluding the Netherlands and the UK, online GGR rose 5.7% and revenue 0.8%, helped by France and Scandinavia. In the Netherlands, GGR fell 8.6%; in the UK it fell 24.4%. FDJ United says action plans in both markets "should allow for a gradual restoration of performance". For background on the Dutch market, see our report on the first eight Dutch online licence renewals.

The group is rolling out a single in-house sportsbook platform that it aims to have running in most of its markets by the end of 2027, and is refocusing its development teams in Europe. In France, Unibet became the group's only brand for online sports betting and poker in the first half of the year. EGR reports that CFO Dan Lévy said the group needs to "fix" its betting underperformance before targeting more acquisitions.

FDJ United is also reviewing which markets its online unit operates in, and its non-core assets, particularly in its Payment and Services unit. It says conclusions will come in early 2027 at the latest. It has not said which markets are under review.

What the new targets mean

FDJ United now expects, for 2026 as a whole:

• a low-single-digit decline in GGR;
• a mid-single-digit decline in revenue, including an impact of more than EUR 70 million from higher gaming taxes;
• a recurring EBITDA margin of around 23%;
• a higher annual dividend, with at least 75% of adjusted net profit paid out.

This is the second cut this year. In February, FDJ United was aiming for slight revenue growth in 2026 and a recurring EBITDA margin of 24.5%. In July, with its half-year results, it moved to stable GGR, a low-single-digit fall in revenue and a margin between 23% and 24%.

In plain terms, the October cut is mainly to how much the group expects to take in. It is not a new profit forecast: FDJ United gives no 2026 profit figure, and says cost control will keep its recurring EBITDA margin, a measure of operating profitability, at around 23%. That is the bottom of the July range, and the dividend target is unchanged. For comparison, the group reported recurring EBITDA of EUR 902 million in 2025, a margin of 24.5%. Lower revenue at a lower margin would mean a smaller figure in euros this year.

For the lottery, FDJ United plans extra draw-game events in the fourth quarter and, in 2027, a relaunch of EuroMillions and Loto and a new EUR 10 instant game. Chairwoman and CEO Stéphane Pallez said the group is "resolutely pursuing the implementation of its action and performance plans to swiftly regain a sustainable growth momentum". Full-year results are due on 18 February 2027.

Higher gaming taxes are a common thread in this reporting season. Betsson posted record third-quarter revenue while taxes cut its EBIT by 31%, and Flutter is restructuring its UK and Ireland business after the UK tax rise. For the French online market as a whole, see the ANJ's first-half figures.