Lula re-elected: what's next for Brazil's MP 1.394 bet ban

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term as Brazil's president, which leaves the country's ban on fixed-odds betting in the hands of the government that issued it. In Sunday's runoff on 25 October, Lula took 64,255,891 votes (51.79% of valid votes) against 59,825,984 (48.21%) for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) with 99.99% of polling stations counted, as of 22:45 Brasília time on 25 October. The new term starts on 5 January 2027.

The ban itself did not change overnight. Provisional Measure (MP) 1.394/2026, signed and published in the official gazette on 25 September, prohibits sports betting and online casino games across Brazil. Sites and apps went offline on 6 October, and on the same Sunday as the vote every federal betting licence was extinguished, with no refund of the licence fee.

Where the government stands

Lula has made his position clear. In a live broadcast on 22 October, he said: "Betting won't come back. Anyone who wants to make money should go to work" (quoted by SBC Notícias; our translation).

A president's word is not the last one, though. Two other institutions can still change the outcome.

The Supreme Federal Court

Justice Luiz Fux is the rapporteur of the constitutional challenges against the MP at the Supreme Federal Court (STF), including ADI 8024 from the industry group Anseja, ADI 8027 from the ANJL and, according to BNLData, ADI 8028 from a mayors' association, ANPV. According to BNLData, Fux will decide on the requests to suspend the MP after the election. No ruling has been published.

The lower courts have not helped the sector either. BNLData counts 19 writs filed in the federal courts in São Paulo and Brasília, with no injunction granted. The only partial win, for Stake, was suspended by the president of the TRF3 court. BNLData also notes that a Supreme Court suspension could in principle be given retroactive effect, which would treat the licences as never having lapsed. That is a legal possibility the outlet describes, not a prediction.

Congress

A provisional measure takes effect immediately but lapses unless Congress turns it into law. According to Congress's own record, the first deliberation period runs to 23 November, the MP starts blocking the agenda from 9 November, and the joint committee that must review it was still awaiting installation on 25 October. Lawmakers have tabled 99 amendments, five of which were withdrawn; some would bring back sports betting and keep online casinos banned. The deadline can be extended once by 60 days, and BNLData calculates that the MP would lapse on 4 March 2027 if it is never voted on.

What it means for players

For now, nothing reopens. No company holds a federal licence to offer fixed-odds betting in Brazil, so any site still taking bets from people in Brazil is operating without one. In our view, the election removes the one route that could have reversed the ban quickly; the realistic paths left are a court decision or changes in Congress, and neither has happened yet.

If you are still owed money by a former licensed operator, the refund route set by the MP has not changed: banks and payment institutions return balances first, then a dedicated account at Caixa Econômica Federal. Courts have ordered some operators to freeze refund money. Use only official channels, and never pay a "release fee" to get your balance. For the background, see how the ban took shape.