Weekly column: prediction markets in court, and what's due 9–13 November

This is our weekly column. It has three parts. First, what happened from 2 to 8 November. Second, what is scheduled for 9 to 13 November, according to the sources named. Third, a checklist of our own news from last week, one line each.

Where we add a forecast, it is labelled Our forecast. It is our reading, not a fact. We state the assumption behind it, so you can judge it yourself.

Last week: the courts set the pace

Two Kalshi rulings, two different questions. On 4 November the Ninth Circuit denied Kalshi's petitions for panel and en banc rehearing in its Nevada case, KalshiEX v. Assad. The one-page order adds no reasoning. As Legal Sports Report and RG describe it, the effect is that the panel's August ruling stands. Kalshi's next stop would be the Supreme Court.

The same day, a federal judge in California granted the tribes led by Blue Lake Rancheria a preliminary injunction. It bars Kalshi from offering sports contracts on the plaintiff tribes' Indian lands. It is not a statewide ban, and it is not an appeals ruling.

Arkansas sued twice. Attorney General Tim Griffin filed two separate lawsuits on 4 November. One is against VGW, the company behind Chumba Casino, LuckyLand Casino, LuckyLand Slots and Global Poker. The other is against Kalshi. Both claim illegal gambling under the Arkansas Deceptive Trade Practices Act. "Any reasonable person would call that gambling," Griffin said of VGW's Gold Coins and Sweeps Coins model. These are allegations, not findings.

Washington pushed the other way. On 5 November the CFTC said designated contract markets must, within 30 days, end domestic geographic restrictions that break its impartial-access rule, or explain why they cannot. That is the regulator's reading of its own rule. It is not a court order, and the release does not say how it applies where a judge ordered a geofence.

For US readers, the practical result is access that can differ by state, or by tribal land, and change from one week to the next. Offshore, Nevis went its own way and launched a dedicated prediction market licence on 2 November.

Europe and Brazil. Austria's online gambling bill hit a pause. Malta issued a detailed opinion, and the EU standstill now ends on 7 December 2026 instead of 5 November. The bill cannot be adopted before then. In Brazil, the Supreme Federal Court's hearing on the betting ban ran about ten hours on 3 November and ended with no decision. The ban stays in force. Flutter booked an $873m non-cash impairment on Brazil and reported a Q3 net loss of $1,148m.

Sweden's regulator banned two companies behind Ivibet, Hellspin, Slotsgem and Duel from offering gambling in Sweden without a licence. NEXT.io reported that Play'n GO told major aggregators its games will no longer be available through them. That is a single-source report. In France, Blask said brands it classes as offshore took 83.9% of gambling search demand in early October. That figure measures search demand, not revenue.

On the casino floor. Playson introduced Blitz Mode. It plays a chosen batch of 10 to 1,000 spins, or an unlimited run, through a faster screen. Playson says the game maths stay the same. The pace does not, so set your limits before you start. Play'n GO launched GO Momentum, an umbrella for its operator promotions. Wazdan entered Finland through Veikkaus.

In poker, ACR's 4 November update switched ScreenShield on by default across the Winning Poker Network. ScreenShield keeps hole cards out of supported screen captures and screen shares. Players who stream or share their screen can turn it off. ACR calls it an extra safeguard, not a full defence.

This week: what is scheduled (9–13 November)

MonkeyTilt closes today, 9 November. The crypto casino's notice says play ended on 13 October and the site closes on 9 November. Withdrawals stay open before and after that date, according to the operator. Our forecast: withdrawals should keep working after today. Assumption: the operator's notice is accurate, and it says it added no holds because of the closure. If you have a balance there, do not wait to test that.

Regulators' awareness week, 9–13 November. The International Association of Gaming Regulators (IAGR) runs its first Illegal Gambling Awareness Week. Its free tool, CheckBeforeYouPlay.org, was due to launch on 9 November. It was online when we checked that morning. IAGR says it covers member jurisdictions only. Our forecast: expect a run of regulator warnings and blocked-site notices this week. Assumption: IAGR invited members to post campaign content daily from 9 to 13 November, so the volume says more about the campaign calendar than about a sudden rise in illegal sites.

Kalshi and the tribes: maps due 13 November. The California order requires the tribes to give Kalshi maps of their Indian lands by 13 November. Kalshi must report to the court on compliance within 21 days of the 4 November order. Our forecast: this week's deadline is procedural. We do not expect a new ruling in that case. Assumption: the next court step set in the order is Kalshi's compliance report, which falls after this week.

Ohio: Coinbase's sports-contract halt due by 13 November. The Ohio Casino Control Commission told Legal Sports Report that Coinbase agreed to stop offering sports event contracts in Ohio by 13 November. Robinhood, Gemini, Moomoo and Plus500US had already stopped, it said. Polymarket and Underdog are suing the commission. Background: Ohio's warning to its own licensees. Our forecast: more state-by-state exits and more lawsuits, not a single national answer. Assumption: the CFTC's 30-day window from 5 November has not run out, and its release does not say how it applies where state enforcement or a court is involved.

Austria: nothing can be adopted this week. The European Commission's TRIS record for notification 2026/0415/AT shows the standstill ending on 7 December 2026. Our forecast: if parliament votes in mid-December, the draft's 1 January 2027 start can survive, but operators would have very little time. Assumption: no further delay and no major redraft. A consultant told iGaming Business a vote had been planned for 9–11 December. Parliament has not announced a date in the sources we read.

UK: a new review of the Gambling Act opened. iGaming Business reports that an independent Gambling Policy Commission opened a review on 9 November of whether Great Britain needs a new Gambling Act. Its call for evidence runs to 12 February 2027, with a final report planned for 2028. Our forecast: no rule changes for players from this in the near term. Assumption: the timetable above, and the commission is independent, not a government body making rules.

Brazil: the ban stays in force. No date for a Supreme Federal Court ruling has been announced. Our forecast: no ruling this week. Assumption: the 3 November hearing was described by Justice Luiz Fux as informational, and none of the sources we read gives a date.

Slots: Fire In The Hole 4. Nolimit City's game page lists exclusive early access from 10 November and general release on 17 November. The studio lists the RTP at 96.01%.

Dates to keep after this week. Yolo.com and Bombay Casino say bonus balances will be cancelled by 16 November and ask players to move Yolo Wallet funds to a bank account by 30 November.

Checklist: our news from last week

• Nevada: Ninth Circuit denies Kalshi rehearing. The August ruling stands.

• California: Kalshi barred from sports contracts on three tribes' lands. Tribal lands only, not statewide.

• Arkansas: AG sues VGW and Kalshi. Allegations, not findings.

• US federal: CFTC tells exchanges to end geographic access limits. An interpretation, not a court order.

• Nevis: a new prediction market licence.

• Austria: EU standstill on the gambling bill extended to 7 December.

• Brazil: Supreme Federal Court hearing ends with no decision. The ban stays.

• Industry: Flutter's Q3 loss after an $873m Brazil write-down.

• Sweden: bans on the firms behind Hellspin, Ivibet and Duel.

• Supply: Play'n GO reportedly cuts off aggregators. Single-source report.

• France: Blask says offshore brands took about 84% of search demand.

• Oklahoma: sweepstakes casino ban in force since 1 November.

• Safety: IAGR's licence checker and awareness week.

• Closures: MonkeyTilt closes on 9 November · Yolo.com and Bombay Casino pause.

• Poker: ACR turns ScreenShield on by default.

• Studios: Playson's Blitz Mode · Play'n GO's GO Momentum · Wazdan enters Finland · 36 Coins x3000.

The next column is due on Friday, 13 November.

18+. Gambling can be addictive. If it stops being fun, see our responsible play page.

Sources

• U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, KalshiEX v. Assad, No. 25-7516, order of 4 Nov 2026 (primary)
• U.S. District Court, N.D. Cal., Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi, 3:25-cv-06162-JSC, Order re: Preliminary Injunction, Doc. 106, 4 Nov 2026 (primary)
• Arkansas Attorney General, releases of 4 Nov 2026 on VGW and on Kalshi (primary)
• CFTC, Release 9323-26, 5 Nov 2026 (primary)
• European Commission TRIS, notification 2026/0415/AT (primary)
• IAGR, "IAGR announces first Illegal Gambling Awareness Week", 26 Oct 2026; CheckBeforeYouPlay.org (primary)
• MonkeyTilt, "MonkeyTilt is closing", last updated 15 Oct 2026 (primary)
• Yolo.com / Bombay Casino operator notice (primary)
• Playson, "Playson goes full speed ahead with Blitz Mode", 3 Nov 2026 (primary)
• ACR Poker via PR Newswire, 5 Nov 2026 (primary)
• Nolimit City, Fire In The Hole 4 game page (primary)
• Legal Sports Report and RG, 5 Nov 2026 (effect of the Ninth Circuit order)
• Legal Sports Report, "Ohio: Four More Firms Agree to Drop Sports Event Contracts", 6 Nov 2026 (OCCC statements)
• iGaming Business, "New commission opens review into whether UK needs a new Gambling Act", 9 Nov 2026
• Each linked Bonusjungle article carries its own full source list.